Power Grid Warning: CEO Randy Price Discusses Reliability Concerns


By Randy Price, CEO & President

Every year, Paulding Putnam (PP) asks our members also to be prepared in case of outages.

This year, however, our concern goes beyond the standard winter risks, and in contrast to problems your co-op can correct — like trees falling on our lines — this threat is beyond our control. Electricity consumers in our region now also face the possibility of outages caused by shortfalls in available electricity.

Around Christmastime last year, bitter cold and extreme conditions during Winter Storm Elliott caused a spike in electricity demand that outstripped what was available in nearby states, and electric utilities were forced to shut down power to some residents to avert widespread uncontrolled outages. Ohio only narrowly avoided such rolling blackouts.

Industry experts now are warning that Ohio and much of the Midwest and eastern U.S. are at risk for similar scenarios if severe weather strikes again this winter.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is the nation’s grid watchdog. For years, the organization has issued a string of increasingly dire reports warning that threats to grid reliability are mounting and more frequent rolling blackouts could soon become the norm.

In its 2023-2024 Winter Reliability Assessment (PDF) (released in Nov. 2023), NERC warned that half of the nation faces the risk of blackouts during extreme weather this winter.

2023 to 2024 Winter Reliability Assessment Illustration American bulk power system is at risk of insufficient electricity supply during peak winter conditions. Prolonged, wide-area cold snaps threaten the reliable performance of bulk power system generation and the availability of the natural gas used by many generators. When electricity supply becomes constrained, system operators can face a simultaneous, sharp increase in demand as electric heating systems consume more power. In some areas not typically exposed to prolonged frigid temperatures, generating capacity can be forced off-line and may require load-shedding procedures to maintain reliability. Winter peak electricity demand is forecast to rise in 13 of the 20 assessment areas. Some areas are projecting higher demand increases that could strain supplies during cold temperatures. Assessed Capacity Potential Shortfalls in MW SaskPower: 400 Maritimes: 900 MISO: 16,000 PJM: 12,000 SPP: 8,500 SERC-Central: 5,700 Québec: 5,500 ERCOT: 6,800 SERC-East: 2,700 Top Five Areas – Demand Growth in One Year Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events. Natural-gas-fired generator availability and output can be threatened when the fuel supply is insufficient or when severe weather disrupts delivery. As Winter Storm Elliott demonstrated, rapid changes in weather can cause electricity demand to deviate significantly from historical forecasts. Heating demand and natural gas production during periods of extreme cold weather can have wide-area consequences for the grid.

Looking further into the future, the picture gets even more grim. Over the next 5 years, NERC forecasts that all or parts of 19 states from Montana to Louisiana are at high risk of rolling blackouts during normal peak conditions. And most of the country faces similar risk when demand for electricity spikes during exceedingly hot or cold temperatures.

The culprit? Government energy policy. The premature closing of reliable fossil-fuel power plants has narrowed the gap between the supply of available electricity and the ever-growing demand for power. Intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar don't run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, and can't cover the gap in demand during extreme weather.

*Note that PP is not against renewable energy; we have solar, wind, and hydro as part of our generation portfolio. This industry issue is because of the unrealistic transition timeline being forced by government policy before technology is ready. Adding renewable sources is not hurting the grid; removing baseload generation like coal plants IS.

When a winter storm drives even higher demand — and threatens supply at the same time — those charged with maintaining balance on the grid may require local utilities to reduce electricity use.

PJM's energy forecast through 2030 shows there isn't enough current generation to meet the forecasted demand with the rise in energy needs. (In this chart, the light gray "High New Energy Capacity" is generation that has yet to be added... and new generation assets aren't fast to be approved or built. Keep in mind renewable energy is also intermittent, meaning it isn't available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.
PJM's energy forecast through 2030 shows there isn't enough current generation to meet the forecasted demand with the rise in energy needs. (In this chart, the light gray "High New Energy Capacity" is generation that has yet to be added... and new generation assets aren't fast to be approved or built. Keep in mind renewable energy is also intermittent, meaning it isn't available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.

To address this, America’s Power, the only national trade organization whose sole mission is to advocate at the federal and state levels on behalf of the U.S. coal fleet, submitted comments on EPA’s Supplemental Proposal requesting public comments on the reliability impacts of the Carbon Rule.

National Rural Electric Cooperative (NRECA) CEO Jim Matheson's Op-Ed on this "sobering" energy policy dilemma was run by Fox News on Jan. 5, 2024, stating "we are quickly reaching a point where there won't be enough electricity to go around."

Matheson also appeared on CBS earlier in 2023, asking legislators to take action against EPA standards in order to keep electricity reliable. (See below or access on YouTube.)

What This Means for Our Cooperative

PP and our electricity generation cooperative, Buckeye Power, will closely watch conditions and stay in constant contact with the regional authority that manages our portion of the electric grid. We have plans in place to clearly and quickly communicate with members if we expect an energy emergency is likely or imminent.

We’ll use all available communication channels to keep you updated and will alert you if energy conservation is urgent or forced outages are likely to occur.

What This Means for You

In addition to the possibility of “normal” winter outages, there’s an increased chance that your electric service could be interrupted by rolling blackouts.

We all can take steps to reduce the likelihood of this happening:

  • Conserve energy, particularly on the coldest days. This might mean delaying doing laundry or running the dishwasher until temperatures rise. You might throw on an extra clothing layer and lower your thermostat by a few degrees to stay comfortable while using less electricity.
  • Pay attention to calls for conservation and make extra effort to reduce electricity use if an alert goes out that the grid is in danger from electricity shortfalls. You may notice the peak status bar on our website; we will keep this updated to keep you informed of current demand.

You can also be prepared for winter outages by:

  • Ensuring the co-op has correct, current contact information for you. If the phone number or email on your account may be out of date, call the office or send us a message.
  • Connecting to the co-op through our account management tool, the SmartHub app, and following us on social media. We’ll use these various channels to keep you informed about outages.
  • Gathering supplies and having a plan to stay safe in case an outage occurs.
  • More information on how to prepare can be found of on our outage preparedness page.
    Your electric cooperative can’t control the weather, but rest assured that we’ll continue doing everything we can to provide you with reliable electric service, no matter what Mother Nature sends our way.

We are also committed to keeping you informed every step of the way. Please continue reading your monthly Ohio Cooperative Living or Indiana Connection magazine and following us on social media for industry updates.